Bear Cloud Hanging Over Gold

14 July 2010

The Commodity Specialist view -

WEEKLY CONTINUATION CHART: In the Commodity Specialist Guide we have been noting that the whole recovery from 2008 low reveals a type of 5-wave/ impulsive structure, a third/final upleg presumed commencing from the 1045.20 Feb low.

How strong this last leg turns out to be is an unknown but, currently, we do note that our most recent Fibo projection has been reached.

We have marked in the 23.6% pullback level, at 1127.

DAILY CHART - AUG-10:

So far, price action has disappointed bulls by failing to capitalize on the recent breach of the previous 1230.70 peak, keeping our higher 1342 Fibo projection (1.618 swing projection of prior Dec/Feb downmove) out of reach.

S/term support has come from a small channel base projection, but also note the convergence of other supports just under - rising support line, 38.2% pullback and 1170 area.

These might yet hold - but we will be taking a breach of these as a bear signal.

Note how the Feb/Jun chart structure is similar to that on the Weekly chart (impulsive, but could have run its course).

First downside target would be the 1133 61.8% pullback, which nicely coincides with 23.6% on that Weekly chart.

Philip Allwright

Mark Sturdy

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