MONTHLY CHART The break through the 0.9849 2008 peak has met with resistance from the long term bull channel top, around 1.0300.

Thoughts have also crept in about a possible change in chart structure which would imply bull fatigue - see below.

DAILY CHART:

Resistance had previously been suggested in the FX Specialist Guide around a Fibo projection close to 1.0200. After the Nov-10 test of this the chart structure has changed, now suggesting that bulls have tired. This resistance area, including prior recent highs, has again been a barrier in Feb.

The rising support line (at 0.9965 now) offers first support, and a break below this followed by breach of the 0.9800 12-Jan low would provide the initial bear signal

A later drop below the s/term channel base projection around 0.9640 currently, would provide bear confirmation, with temporary support then looking likely around the 0.9405 Nov-09 high (near to the current 38.2% pullback level).