Seven Days Ahead - Free Market Updates

How Committed at the Eur/Gbp bears?

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 00:00:00 CEST

The disappointment of the UK Gilt market

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 00:00:00 CEST

link for shorts and longs

The disappointment of the UK Gilt market

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 00:00:00 CEST

link for spreadex

The disappointment of the UK Gilt market

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 00:00:00 CEST

link for IG

The disappointment of the UK Gilt market

Fri, 03 Sep 2010 00:00:00 CEST

The Technical Trader’s view:

WEEK CHART

We have been one the bulls of the Gilt market, and have been disappointed by the market’s failure to get above and stay above the band of Prior Highs 124.95 and 125.58.

Some would argue that it is a band of such long-standing that the market would anyway have paused at that level, and while marking time, oscillated to include current levels at least.

But bears will add in addition that the impetus from the Bull falling wedge established throughout 2009 and completed in early 2010 has been exhausted.

Look closer.

DAILY SEP 10 CHART

In the Sep 10 chart the short-term bulls were alerted to the vulnerability of the market by the upper diagonal of the bull parallel channel.

That was good resistance.

And the pull-back in the Sep chart looks like a testing of the long-term support.

But that maturity is close to expiry.

DAILY DEC 10 CHART

In the Dec 10 chart, the technical situation looks more serious.

The market failed to penetrate the Pivotal band from Prior Highs –twice.

And on the very recent pull-back, the market has broken back through the June 2010 Prior High support of 124.49 with ease.

The Fibonacci support at 123.80 is relatively weak support, not at all strong enough we feel to support the multiple failures of the last six days trading…

The market is very vulnerable

Mark Sturdy

Seven Days Ahead

How Committed Are Short Term EUR/GBP Bulls?

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:00 CEST

Spreadex

How Committed Are Short Term EUR/GBP Bulls?

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:00 CEST

How Committed Are Short Term EUR/GBP Bulls?

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:00 CEST

The FX Specialist view -

MONTLHY CHART: A bear signal was given after the break of the long term 38.2% level and Jun-09 low just under 0.8400.

Current focus is on the 0.8168 50% pullback level, so far providing temporary support. Lower levels are likely in due course.

WEEKLY CHART: Breaks of the rising support lines and 0.8397 Jun-09 low implied the longer term chart had topped out.

Support from a 76.4% retracement level at 0.8190 was eroded, but only briefly so far.

DAILY CHART:

The recent pullback from just above a 38.2% recovery level has found support from a s/term 76.4% level (which coincides with the longer term 76.4% level).

In the Commodity Specialist Guide we have maintained an overall bear stance, but a recovery through the bear channel top projection and also 0.8532 19-Jul high would be bullish. In this event bear momentum would have diminished for the time being, with a better recovery phase then signalled.

A clear breach of the current 76.4% support should herald clear new 2010 lows.

Philip Allwright

Mark Sturdy

Seven Days Ahead

Bulls’ Sugar Rush Could Fade Soon

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:00 CEST

Spreadex

Bulls’ Sugar Rush Could Fade Soon

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:00 CEST

Bulls’ Sugar Rush Could Fade Soon

Thu, 02 Sep 2010 00:00:00 CEST

The Commodity Specialist view -

SUGAR 11 - WEEKLY CONTINUATION CHART: Good support came from around the long term 76.4% pullback level. The 13.67 May low on the Oct chart coincides nicely with this 76.4% level.

Note how the 38.2% recovery level here coincides with the old early 2006 high, where resistance was recently seen.

The market could yet struggle to hold above this over the shorter term.

SUGAR 11 - DAILY CHART OCT-10: The bull move has stayed in force, with eyes on the 20.63/21.20 area, 76.4% recovery and prior congestion low from early 2010.

The chart structure suggests resistance should be likely here, but also note the negative RSI divergence that indicates certain fatigue setting in.

At this stage a drop through the rising support line near 19.00 would signal initial momentum loss, to be confirmed by a violation of the 17.51 10-Aug low.

Philip Allwright

Mark Sturdy

Seven Days Ahead

Oil pressures are rising

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

link for shorts and longs

Oil pressures are rising

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

link for spreadex

Oil pressures are rising

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

link for IG

Oil pressures are rising

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

The Technical Trader's view:

WEEKLY CHART

The oil market looks set to go lower having completed a series of bear patterns on a large scale.

First a bear rising wedge

Second a parallel flag…

Both have completed in the weekly chart.

Flags typically occur halfway in the move…which suggests a move to the low $50s.

DAILY CHART

The detail of the parallel flag is here – cautious bears will want to wait for a break down through the two Prior Lows at $70.35 and $72.15.

More aggressive traders will watch the short-covering rally and look to sell higher, beneath the resistance that will surely be found at the lower diagonal of the Flag – currently at $74.52 or so.

Mark Sturdy

Seven Days Ahead

NZD/USD Pullback From 76.4% Resistance Underway

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

Spreadex

NZD/USD Pullback From 76.4% Resistance Underway

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

NZD/USD Pullback From 76.4% Resistance Underway

Fri, 27 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

The FX Specialist view -

WEEKLY CHART: Earlier in 2010 clear support was seen from the 38.2% pullback level, with the subsequent bounce impressive.

However, note that, on this chart, at least temporary resistance has been found near to a former 76.4% chart level.

Now look at the Daily chart...

DAILY CHART:

On this chart note that resistance has come from a 76.4% recovery level.

Momentum loss has now been signalled by the recent breach of the s/term bull channel base.

Temporary support is emerging from a falling resistance/return line (and the current chart structure could be suggesting a rebound attempt is not far off) - ideally any s/term bounce will find resistance from around the 0.7186 30-Jul low.

A later break of the return line would be further negative, with lower 0.6800 former lows area then becoming the key support.

Philip Allwright

Mark Sturdy

Seven Days Ahead

Patient Crude Oil Bears Still Seek Their Reward

Wed, 25 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

Spreadex

Patient Crude Oil Bears Still Seek Their Reward

Wed, 25 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

Patient Crude Oil Bears Still Seek Their Reward

Wed, 25 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

The Commodity Specialist view -

BRENT CRUDE - WEEKLY CONTINUATION CHART: The May fall was marked by a Key Reversal Week and Month (latter not shown here).

Good support came from around the 38.2% pullback level, but in the Climate & Energy and Commodity Specialist Guides we have maintained our expectations of a further bear leg.

BRENT CRUDE - DAILY CHART OCT-10: The summer consolidation looks to have completed a simple/standard up-down-up shape.

The break of a small channel base projection is an initial negative sign now - a further one would a close below the 71.50 06-Jul low.

We can then target the 61.00 area, where an equality target resides (May downleg extended off 83.09 04-Aug high). A bear channel base projection also currently runs through here.

The whole picture would change markedly should price recover through that 83.09 high.

US LIGHT CRUDE - DAILY CHART OCT-10:

On the US Crude chart the 06-Jul low, 72.15, has already been breached.

Eyes are now swivelling towards the equality target, again at 61.00, and bear channel base projection.

Philip Allwright

Mark Sturdy

Seven Days Ahead

Slip Back in EUR/JPY Currently Assumed Temporary

Thu, 19 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

Spreadex

Slip Back in EUR/JPY Currently Assumed Temporary

Thu, 19 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

Slip Back in EUR/JPY Currently Assumed Temporary

Thu, 19 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

The FX Specialist view -

WEEKLY CHART: After long term 76.4% support was found (not shown on this Weekly chart) there has been an initial recovery to the 23.6% level.

Beyond here, note how higher 38.2% nicely coincides with the 119.63 Feb low.

DAILY CHART:

After adopting an initial bull stance in the Commodity Specialist Guide the market has slipped back - to s/term 76.4% support just above 109.00.

Perhaps this level can work again.

It offers a limited risk opportunity to aggressive buyers (stops below the 107.30 Jun low), but bulls now need to see recovery.

First key resistance now comes from the 114.83/115.17 dual Fibo retracement area. A break through this would bolster the bull argument and turn focus on the 119.63 Feb low, just below which is 38.2% from the Weekly chart and just above a 61.8% level on this chart.

This still has the potential for an interesting recovery situation.

Philip Allwright

Mark Sturdy

Seven Days Ahead

Wheat Cut Back after Recent High Yield for Bulls

Thu, 19 Aug 2010 00:00:00 CEST

Spreadex